Week in Markets: Brent at $126, S&P at Record, Fed Holds With 4 Dissents, Mag-7 Raises AI Capex

Brent crude touched $126.41 per barrel intraday on Thursday, the highest print in four years. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on Wednesday with four dissenting votes, the most since October 1992. March core PCE accelerated to 3.2 percent year-over-year, the hottest reading since November 2023. Q1 GDP missed at 2.0 percent annualized against a 2.3 percent consensus, while Q1 PCE inside the GDP report printed at 4.5 percent.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at a fresh record of 7,230.12, its fifth consecutive weekly gain. The Nasdaq closed at 25,114.44, also a record, the first close above 25,000 in history. Apple delivered $111.2 billion in revenue and authorized an additional $100 billion buyback. Alphabet reported Google Cloud growth of 63 percent year-over-year. Amazon Web Services grew 28 percent, a fifteen-quarter high. The Magnificent Seven raised 2026 capex guidance by roughly $25 billion in a single week.

Bitcoin printed an intraday high of $80,529 on Tuesday, the first $80,000 print since January 31. The level did not hold. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted three consecutive sessions of outflows totaling $651 million, the longest negative run in three months, before snapping back to a $630 million inflow on Friday. Bitcoin closed the week at $78,292, essentially flat against the prior Friday's $78,126.

The shock arrived. The shock was real. The market made new highs anyway.

The W18 thesis was that the market was choosing what to ignore. The W19 evolution is more uncomfortable. The Hormuz crisis is no longer a headline. It is a $126 print, an 11.6 percent monthly surge in PCE energy goods, and a 6.3 percent drop in XOP on a single ceasefire rumor. The Fed is no longer hesitating. It is openly fractured, four votes against the chair on his final meeting. The data is no longer ambiguous. Q1 PCE at 4.5 percent on 2.0 percent GDP is the textbook stagflation print. And yet the S&P closed up 0.9 percent on the week, semis closed up another 0.9 percent on Friday alone, and the AI capex guides came in $25 billion above where the buy-side was modeling. The market is pricing through the regime, not around it.

The story this week is not the shock. It is what kept holding.

Macro Pulse

Powell's Final FOMC Held With Four Dissents

The April 29 FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. The vote was 8 to 4. It was the largest dissent count since October 1992, when four members opposed Alan Greenspan's hold against rising inflation expectations. The composition of the dissent matters more than the count.

Stephen Miran, the Trump-appointed governor confirmed in March, voted to cut rates by 25 basis points. Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas all voted with the majority on the rate decision but opposed the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement language. The split was effectively three hawks who wanted to remove any signal of future cuts, one dove who wanted to cut immediately, and four members aligned with Powell on the present hold but unable to agree on the path.

The statement itself contained the most direct acknowledgment of the energy shock the Fed has issued this cycle. Inflation, the committee wrote, "remains elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." The statement added that "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased, in particular relating to events in the Middle East." This was the first FOMC statement to explicitly cite the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Powell used the press conference to announce that he would remain on the Board of Governors beyond the May 15 expiration of his chairmanship. His Board term runs until January 2028. Powell cited the ongoing inspector general investigation into the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation as the reason. "Trump's legal attacks have left me no choice," he told reporters. "I want to see this investigation through to its conclusion with transparency and finality." The statement created a constitutional grey zone. Once Kevin Warsh is sworn in as chair on May 15, the Federal Reserve Board will, for the first time in its history, contain a former chair as a sitting governor with an active mandate.

CME FedWatch closed Friday with a 28 percent probability of a 25 basis point cut at the June 17 meeting and a 70 percent probability of a hold. Cumulative cuts priced through year-end totaled 32.5 basis points, consistent with zero or one cut for all of 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.36 percent, up from 4.31 percent at the prior week's close. The 2-year held in a tight 3.78 to 3.85 percent range.

Sources - Fed & Rates: CNBC: April 2026 FOMC decision | Federal Reserve: FOMC Statement April 29 | CNBC: Powell stays on Board | Fox Business: Fed holds, Powell winds down

GDP and PCE Confirm the Stagflation Print

Thursday's BEA release delivered the cleanest stagflation signal of the cycle. Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate printed at 2.0 percent annualized, a meaningful miss against the 2.3 percent Dow Jones consensus. The headline rebounded from Q4 2025's 0.5 percent print but came in below trend.

The inflation components inside the GDP release were the story. The Q1 PCE deflator printed at 4.5 percent, against 2.9 percent in Q4 2025. The Q1 core PCE deflator printed at 4.3 percent. Both measures effectively doubled in a single quarter. The driver was unambiguous. PCE goods rose 1.4 percent in March alone, with the energy component up 11.6 percent on the month. The Hormuz pass-through that the March PPI release suggested was being absorbed into margins is now visible in the consumption deflator.

The same morning, the BEA's separate Personal Income and Outlays release confirmed March core PCE at 3.2 percent year-over-year, up from 3.0 percent in February. This is the highest year-over-year core PCE reading since November 2023. Headline PCE printed at 3.5 percent year-over-year. Both figures were in line with consensus, but the trajectory matters. The Fed's 2 percent target is now 120 basis points away on the core measure and 150 basis points away on headline.

The bond market response was muted. The 10-year ended Thursday at 4.40 percent, up from 4.35 percent in the morning, before retracing to 4.36 percent on Friday. The 2-year was almost unchanged. The market appears to be pricing the energy shock as transitory rather than as a regime shift, even as the data itself indicates the shift is happening.

Sources - GDP & PCE: BEA: GDP Advance Q1 2026 | BEA: Personal Income and Outlays March 2026 | CNBC: PCE Inflation March 2026 | Fox Business: March PCE elevated amid Iran war

ECB Held at 2.00 with Hike Discussion

The European Central Bank held its main refinancing rate at 2.00 percent on Thursday, in line with consensus. Christine Lagarde's press conference contained a notable shift in tone. A rate hike, she confirmed, "was discussed at length" within the Governing Council. Eurozone April flash CPI printed at 3.0 percent year-over-year, the highest reading since September 2023, well above the 2 percent target. Lagarde framed the institution as "no longer in the base case scenario" and indicated openness to a June rate hike if energy-driven inflation persists.

The Bank of England held at 3.75 percent on Thursday with one dissent calling for a hike. The Bank of Japan held at 0.75 percent on Tuesday with three of nine board members voting to raise to 1.00 percent. Three central banks, three different starting points, and the same posture: paralyzed by an energy shock that runs through every developed economy via different mechanisms.

Sources - Central Banks: Euronews: ECB holds at 2% | Bank of England April 2026 MPC | ECB Lagarde interview El Pais

Geopolitics

Trump Rejects Iran Proposal, Brent Hits $126

The Hormuz crisis intensified on a precise sequence over Monday and Wednesday. On Monday April 27, Iran submitted a Pakistan-mediated proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade. The proposal explicitly deferred nuclear negotiations to a later phase. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed the framework in a televised statement.

By Tuesday April 28, Trump's national security team was reviewing the proposal. The planned travel of envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to Islamabad was canceled. Brent closed Tuesday at $111.26, up 3 percent, on the uncertainty.

On Wednesday April 29, Trump rejected the proposal in a public statement to Axios. "The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing," he said. "They are choking like a stuffed pig." The administration confirmed the blockade would continue until a comprehensive nuclear deal was signed. CENTCOM disclosed that more than 40 commercial vessels had been redirected since the blockade began on April 13. Iranian state media declared "practical action" was being prepared. Brent closed Wednesday at $118.03, up 6 percent. WTI closed at $106.88, up nearly 7 percent.

Thursday April 30 was the spike session. Brent printed an intraday high of $126.41 per barrel, the highest level since 2022, before retracing to $115.80 on profit-taking and contract roll dynamics. WTI touched $110.90 intraday before settling at $105.07. The average US gasoline price reached $4.46 per gallon, up from $2.98 in early March before the war began.

Friday May 1 saw partial stabilization. Brent held above $111 per barrel. The week's gain was the second consecutive weekly advance for the benchmark, totaling roughly 6 percent. Reports of an Iranian "14-point peace proposal" still being reviewed by the White House provided the bid for a Friday risk-on close, though no formal agreement was disclosed.

Sources - Iran & Oil: CNN: Brent briefly touches $126 | CNBC: Brent $118 on Trump blockade | Axios: Trump rejects Iran proposal | Al Jazeera: Trump blockade, Tehran threats

EU 20th Sanctions Package Activates

The European Council's 20th sanctions package against Russia, adopted April 23, came into partial force on April 25 and reached full effect during W19. The headline measure bans short-term LNG contracts signed before June 17, 2025. The European Union imports approximately 30.55 million euros per day in Russian LNG under spot contracts. The ban also covers maintenance services for Russian LNG carriers and icebreakers in European ports.

Forty-six new vessels were added to the shadow fleet designations, bringing the total to 632 ships. Fifty-eight Russian military entities, primarily drone and air-defense manufacturers, were sanctioned. The package extends to Chinese companies accused of sanctions circumvention, drawing a formal protest from Beijing. Crypto-asset platforms operating from Russia were placed under a comprehensive ban.

The market impact was secondary to the Hormuz dynamic. TTF natural gas held in a tight range. The euro weakened modestly against the dollar before the JPY intervention reversed the dollar's strength on Thursday. The 20th package cements the structural reduction in European energy exposure to Russia, but the pass-through to spot pricing was muted by the larger oil shock.

Warsh Confirmation Advances

The Senate Banking Committee voted 13 to 11 on April 29 to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair. The vote was strictly along party lines, the first party-line confirmation vote in committee history for a Federal Reserve chairman. Senator Thom Tillis released his hold on the nomination after the Department of Justice announced on April 25 the closure of its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell related to the Federal Reserve renovation contracts.

The full Senate vote is scheduled for the week of May 11. Powell's term as chair expires May 15. Warsh, if confirmed, will assume the chairmanship the same day. The W18 testimony in which Warsh signaled the abandonment of forward guidance, the shrinking of the balance sheet, and the floating of a new inflation framework remains the operative reference for the institution's near-term direction.

Sources - EU & Warsh: EU Council: 20th sanctions package | CNBC: Warsh Senate committee vote | Bloomberg: Warsh wins committee vote

Markets

Big Tech Earnings Carry the Tape

The four-day stretch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening saw five of the seven Magnificent Seven members report quarterly results. The aggregate set the tone for the entire equity market, overpowering the FOMC, the GDP miss, and the oil shock.

Microsoft reported Wednesday after the close. Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue printed at $82.89 billion, up 18 percent year-over-year, against $81.5 billion expected. EPS came in at $4.27 against $4.06 expected. Azure cloud revenue grew 31 percent year-over-year. The 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised to $190 billion, citing memory pricing as the primary driver. Microsoft closed Thursday down 4 percent on capex sustainability concerns before recovering to close the week roughly flat. The stock ended Thursday at $407.78.

Alphabet reported Wednesday after the close. Q1 revenue of $109.9 billion grew 22 percent year-over-year, the strongest top-line growth since 2022. EPS of $5.11 nearly doubled the $2.63 consensus, reflecting a one-time legal benefit but also genuine operating leverage. Google Cloud Platform revenue grew 63 percent year-over-year to over $20 billion. The capex guide for 2026 was raised to $180 to $190 billion from $175 to $185 billion. GOOGL gained roughly 10 percent post-earnings and finished April up 34 percent for the month.

Amazon reported Wednesday after the close. Q1 revenue of $181.5 billion grew 17 percent year-over-year. AWS revenue grew 28 percent year-over-year, the strongest growth rate in fifteen quarters. AWS operating margin printed at a record 13.1 percent. EPS of $2.78 beat the $1.64 consensus. Amazon raised its 2026 capex guide to over $200 billion.

Meta reported Wednesday after the close. Q1 revenue of $56.3 billion grew 33 percent year-over-year. EPS of $7.31 beat consensus. The 2026 capex guide was raised to $125 to $145 billion from $115 to $135 billion. Meta closed the week down approximately 10 percent despite the beat. The market read the capex revision as margin-compressive without sufficient revenue offset visibility.

Apple reported Thursday after the close. Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue printed at $111.2 billion, up 17 percent year-over-year, against $109.66 billion expected. iPhone revenue grew 22 percent to $57.99 billion, a March-quarter record. Services revenue printed at $30.98 billion. Mac revenue at $8.4 billion. Gross margin reached 49.3 percent. EPS of $2.01 beat the $1.95 consensus. The Q3 fiscal guidance was set at 14 to 17 percent revenue growth, against 9.5 percent consensus. The board authorized an additional $100 billion buyback. Apple closed Friday up 3 percent and pulled the Nasdaq through the 25,000 level.

The aggregate capex revision across the five reporters was approximately $25 billion in upward adjustments to 2026 guidance. The semiconductor index (SOXX) gained 0.93 percent on Friday and closed near $465.75, up roughly 50 percent year-to-date. The eighteen-session winning streak from W18 extended to a nineteenth weekly gain.

Sources - Big Tech Earnings: Apple Q2 2026 earnings | CNBC: Apple Q2 2026 | CNBC: Alphabet Q1 2026 | CNBC: Microsoft Q3 FY2026 | CNBC: Meta Q1 2026 | FactSet S&P 500 Earnings May 1

Index Performance

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,230.12, up 0.29 percent on the day and up 0.9 percent on the week. It was the fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest weekly streak since October 2024. April closed as the strongest month for the S&P since 2020.

The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at 25,114.44, the first close above the 25,000 level. The weekly gain was 1.1 percent, also the fifth consecutive weekly advance. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,812.82, up roughly 0.5 percent on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,499.27, finishing the week roughly flat to slightly negative as cyclical components lagged the AI-tech rally.

Internationally, the Stoxx 600 closed at 611.55, up 0.10 percent on the week with a 1.42 percent rally on Friday on Iran de-escalation hopes. The DAX closed at 24,292, up 1.41 percent on Friday but flat to negative on the week given Tuesday-Wednesday weakness. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.34 percent on the week as the BoJ hawkish hold and JPY intervention created cross-asset volatility. The Hang Seng fell 0.78 percent ahead of the China Labour Day holiday. The Shanghai Composite was closed for portions of the week.

JPY Intervention Caps Dollar Strength

The dominant FX event of the week was Japan's currency intervention on Thursday April 30. USD/JPY had reached an intraday high of 160.725, the strongest level since July 2024, on the combination of BoJ's hawkish hold without a hike and the dollar's strength against the broader complex. The Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan executed an estimated $35 billion in yen-buying operations, the largest single-day intervention since July 2024. USD/JPY fell 2.3 percent on the day to close at 156.57.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama had signaled "decisive" action earlier in the day. US Treasury was notified in advance, consistent with G7 coordination protocols. The intervention triggered the largest single-day decline in DXY since mid-March. The dollar index closed Friday near 98, having tested 98.6 mid-week before the intervention reversed the strength.

EUR/USD benefited mechanically from the dollar weakness, closing Friday near 1.1767 against a Tuesday low of 1.1659. GBP/USD closed near 1.3575. Silver rallied on the dollar move, closing above $74. Gold closed at approximately $4,600, down 1.2 percent on the week as profit-taking from the prior week's record near $5,593 outweighed the dollar tailwind.

Sources - FX & Markets: CNBC: Yen surges as Japan intervenes | CNBC: S&P 500 closes at new record May 1 | TheStreet: Stock Market Today May 1 2026 | CNBC: Japan FX intervention Iran fallout

VIX Below 17 With Brent at $126

The most striking risk metric of the week was the VIX. The index closed Friday at 16.89, below 17, on a week that contained a four-year high in oil, a four-dissent FOMC, the worst stagflation print of the cycle, the largest yen intervention since 2024, and a $651 million three-day ETF outflow streak in Bitcoin. The market is not pricing the regime as fragile. It is pricing it as a known volatility surface to be sold into. Whether this is correct or complacent will be the dominant question heading into the May NFP report.

Crypto

Bitcoin Tests $80k, Fails to Hold

Bitcoin's W19 was defined by a single intraday print and a single failed level. On Tuesday April 28 at approximately 14:30 UTC, BTC reached $80,529 in spot trading, the first $80,000 print since January 31. The catalyst was the Trump administration's announcement of "Project Freedom," a US Navy escort operation through the Strait of Hormuz involving guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft, and 15,000 personnel. The announcement was framed as a freedom-of-navigation operation rather than an escalation, which the market initially read as bullish for risk and supportive for Bitcoin's macro hedge narrative.

The level did not hold. By Tuesday's close, BTC had retraced to $79,770, then continued lower through Asian hours. By Wednesday's FOMC, BTC was trading at $77,000. The post-FOMC reaction extended the decline. BTC printed an intraday low of $74,900 on Wednesday's New York close, a -7 percent move from the Tuesday peak in less than 36 hours.

Thursday delivered a $541 million liquidation event in the opposite direction. Funding rates had turned negative through Tuesday and Wednesday's decline, with traders aggressively shorting the rallies. When BTC reclaimed $75,000 on Thursday morning, $440 million of short positions were liquidated, 81 percent of the day's total. The squeeze drove BTC back to $76,300 by Thursday's close.

Friday delivered the recovery. BTC closed May 1 at $78,292 after an intraday high of $78,500. The week-over-week change was effectively flat, +0.2 percent against the W18 close of $78,126. The intraweek range was $74,900 to $80,529, a 7.5 percent peak-to-trough move on a flat weekly outcome.

ETF Flows Turn Net Negative for First Time in 3 Months

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows registered the first net-negative week since late January 2026. Cumulative outflows over Monday through Thursday totaled approximately $651 million. Monday saw $313.6 million in outflows. Tuesday added $89.7 million. Wednesday's FOMC session saw $221.8 million leave. Thursday was near-flat at -$7.2 million. The four-day total broke the eight-week positive streak that had built through W18.

Friday delivered a sharp reversal. May 1 inflows totaled $630 million, with BlackRock's IBIT taking $284.4 million, Fidelity's FBTC capturing $213.4 million, and ARK's ARKB adding $88.5 million. The Friday move was the third-largest single-day inflow of 2026 and clawed back nearly all of the week's net outflows. The final weekly total was slightly negative at approximately -$21 million, breaking a run of four consecutive positive weeks.

April 2026 closed as the strongest ETF month since October 2025, with $2.44 billion in net inflows. Cumulative lifetime spot Bitcoin ETF flows since the January 2024 launch reached $58.5 billion. BlackRock's IBIT now holds approximately $62 billion in assets and captured roughly 73 percent of April's inflows.

Spot Ethereum ETFs posted $356 million in net inflows for April, the first positive month after a five-month negative streak. Year-to-date 2026 ETH ETF flows remain net negative at approximately -$413 million.

Sources - ETF Flows: CryptoTimes: ETFs net negative this week | CryptoTimes: $630M institutional purchase | Investing.com: BTC ETF $2.44B April

On-Chain Structure Remains Constructive

The on-chain dataset entering W19 confirmed continued accumulation behavior. Bitcoin exchange reserves held near 2.21 million BTC, approximately 5.88 percent of total supply, the lowest level in seven to nine years. The 30-day net exchange outflow was approximately 48,500 BTC, equivalent to $3.6 billion in dollar terms. Whale wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC rose to 2,140 addresses, up 58 since December 2025. The 30-day cumulative whale accumulation reached 270,000 BTC, the largest one-month corporate-and-whale buy since 2013.

The MVRV Z-Score held near 1.2, in territory historically associated with cycle bottoms rather than tops. The Exchange Whale Ratio printed at 0.64, the highest reading since October 2015, indicating that the largest deposits to exchanges are coming from large holders rather than retail. The short-term holder SOPR printed at 0.92 to 0.96, indicating that short-term holders are selling at a loss. The combination of long-term accumulation and short-term capitulation is a signature regime in Bitcoin's cycle history.

Strategy disclosed on April 27 a 3,273 BTC purchase for approximately $255 million at an average price of $77,894. The purchase brought total holdings to 818,334 BTC. Michael Saylor confirmed mid-week that Strategy was "taking the week off from buying Bitcoin," explicitly pausing the daily acquisition cadence. The pause did not reverse the structural accumulation thesis but removed a known marginal bid for the second half of the week.

Sentiment, Liquidations, and the Funding Divergence

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index opened W19 at approximately 62, in Greed territory carried over from W18's 70 reading. By Wednesday's FOMC close, the index had fallen to 33, in Fear territory. The 29-point swing in three sessions was the most aggressive sentiment deterioration in 2026 to date. The index closed the week at 44 to 45, in lower-Fear range.

The cumulative liquidation total for the week was approximately $1.1 billion across all crypto, with the bulk concentrated in the FOMC session ($534 million) and the Thursday short squeeze ($541 million). 169,525 traders were liquidated on Thursday alone. Funding rates remained negative or near zero through Friday, indicating that despite the price recovery, leverage positioning has not rebuilt.

The clearest tell of W19's crypto regime was the funding-flow divergence. ETF flows were net positive on the structural measure (April $2.44B). Spot Bitcoin price remained range-bound at $74k to $80k. Funding rates remained negative. Long-term holder behavior was constructive. Short-term holder behavior was capitulative. This is the textbook profile of a base-building consolidation rather than a top.

Altcoins Underperform, Major DeFi Hack Continues to Weigh

Ethereum closed the week down approximately 2.5 to 3 percent, retracing toward $2,290 after testing $2,360 early in the week. The ETH/BTC ratio closed near 0.0294, near multi-month lows. Solana fell 3.14 percent to close at approximately $83.72. XRP fell 2.85 percent on the week, the worst performer among large caps, weighed by the SEC's April 27 announcement of an 85 percent asset eligibility threshold for crypto trust listings, a rule change that will delay multiple leveraged XRP ETF filings.

The total crypto market capitalization closed the week near $2.68 trillion. Bitcoin dominance closed at approximately 60 percent, the first close above 60 percent since 2025. The Altcoin Season Index closed below 40, well below the 75 threshold for an alt season designation.

April 2026 closed as the worst month in crypto hack history, with $625 to $647 million lost across 28 to 30 separate exploits. The DeFi total value locked entered W19 in the $86 to $90 billion range, recovering from the KelpDAO ($293 million) and Drift Protocol ($285 million) hacks earlier in April. Wasabi Protocol disclosed a $4.5 million admin-key compromise on April 30, the only major exploit during W19 itself.

The Hashdex Nasdaq multi-asset crypto ETF received SEC approval during the week, providing diversified BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and XLM exposure in a single regulated wrapper. CME Group announced the launch of SUI futures effective May 4, providing institutional access to Sui ecosystem exposure.

Sources - Crypto: CoinInsider: BTC breaks $80,000 on Hormuz | Motley Fool: BTC holds above $78,000 May 1 | Phemex: BTC drops after FOMC 9th time | CoinDesk: Strategy buys $255M BTC | CryptoTimes: April 2026 hack month

The Week Ahead

Week 20 contains the next set of catalysts that will determine whether W19's bifurcated regime extends or breaks. Tuesday May 5 brings ISM Services PMI (consensus 53.8 against 54.0 prior) and JOLTS Job Openings (consensus 6.87M against 6.88M prior). The Reserve Bank of Australia delivers its rate decision Tuesday morning at 00:30 ET, with consensus pricing a hold at 4.10 percent against speculation of a hike to 4.35 percent.

Wednesday May 6 delivers ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (consensus +90K against +62K prior). The Bank of England, Norges Bank, and Bank of Mexico all deliver rate decisions during the week.

Thursday May 7 brings Unemployment Claims (consensus 203K against 189K prior).

Friday May 8 is the key session. April Non-Farm Payrolls is the headline release at 08:30 ET, with consensus at +60K against +178K prior. Unemployment Rate consensus is 4.3 percent, unchanged. Average Hourly Earnings consensus is 0.3 percent month-over-month. ECB President Lagarde speaks at 03:00 ET. BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 08:20 ET. The Senate is expected to schedule the full Warsh confirmation vote in the same week, with Powell's chair term expiring May 15.

Major earnings during the week include Berkshire Hathaway, Disney, AMD, Uber, and a substantial group of energy and industrial names. The Q1 2026 blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 entering W20 is 27.1 percent, the strongest cycle in over two years.

The single binary risk for the week ahead is the Hormuz crisis. Iran's "14-point peace proposal" remains under White House review. A formal agreement would deliver an immediate decline in Brent of approximately 15 to 20 percent, an 8 to 10 percent decline in gold, and a corresponding lift in equities and Bitcoin. A continued blockade with no resolution path keeps Brent above $110, sustains the stagflation print, and keeps the FOMC dissent dynamic active. The path between these two outcomes will be priced in real time over the next ten trading sessions.